Rainfall during June-July and kharif crop in Bundelkhand

 

Rainfall Observed at Tikamgarh

Month	May	June	July
Normal	6.0	78	311
Actual observed	70.4	22.3	80mm(1-6July)

Rainfall observed during June was below 65% of the normal rainfall at Tikamgarh. After the onset of monsoon (2^nd July,2026) rainfall was observed and farmers are able to sow their kharif crops. It is expected a light to medium rainfall during next 3-4 days in Bundelkhand agroclimatic zone.

Rainfall in July 2026

• IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for July 2026, with all-India rainfall expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to the strengthening El Niño. Central India, including Bundelkhand, is expected to experience uneven rainfall distribution, with long dry spells interrupted by a few heavy rainfall events rather than regular widespread rain. Although rainfall activity may improve during parts of July, the month as a whole is still likely to remain below normal. Kharif crop sowing status

Across India:

• By late June 2026, kharif sowing was about 23% lower than the previous year because of delayed monsoon onset and rainfall deficiency. For Bundelkhand, the likely situation is:

• Delayed sowing of soybean, pigeonpea (arhar), sesame, black gram (urd), green gram (moong), and maize in rainfed areas.
• Farmers are waiting for 50–75 mm of cumulative rainfall before undertaking large-scale sowing.
• Early-sown crops may face moisture stress if dry spells exceed 10–15 days.

Crop-wise recommendations

Rainfall situation	Recommended crops
Sowing before 15 July	Soybean, sesame, maize, pigeonpea
Sowing during 15–25 July	Short-duration soybean, urd, moong, sesame
Sowing after 25 July	Black gram, sesame, pearl millet, fodder crops
Very late sowing (after early August)	Horse gram, cowpea, fodder sorghum

Advisory for Bundelkhand farmers

• Wait until adequate soil moisture is available before sowing.
• Prefer short-duration and drought-tolerant varieties if sowing is delayed.
• Complete seed treatment with fungicide and biofertilizers before sowing.
• Maintain moisture through ridge–furrow planting and mulching where possible.
• Keep contingency seed available in case re-sowing becomes necessary.

Outlook for the rest of the season

If the predicted strong El Niño persists and August–September rainfall also remains below normal, Bundelkhand may experience:

• Reduced soybean and maize yields.
• Better performance of pigeonpea and sesame compared with soybean.
• Greater need for life-saving irrigation where water is available.
• Increased risk of mid-season agricultural drought, especially in shallow black and red soils.

 

The relationship between may rainfall and monsoon rainfall at Tikamgarh is very weak.

This year a total of 70.4mm rainfall was recorded at Tikamgarh . The IMD forecasted a below normal rainfall (92% of LPA) in central India. As per IMD,  the rainfall in July and August will be below normal and expected a long duration of break in Monsoon. 

Monsoon is onset today at Kerela and expected to onset during third week of June in Tikamgarh .

Our prediction based on some other uncorrelated factors is that  Tikamgarh will received normal rainfall in June and July but expected below normal in August 2026.

Why high day temperature recorded in Bundelkhand during summer seasons

 

In Bundelkhand agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh Khajuraho and Datia often record some of the highest maximum temperatures in India due to a combination of their geographic location, topography, and prevailing wind patterns. Recently, Khajuraho recorded temperatures around 46–47°C, making it one of the hottest places in India during the heatwave period. Datia has also repeatedly appeared among the hottest stations in the country during severe heat events.

The kay reasons

 

• Location and  Lack of Moisture:  Bundelkhand is located in northern plains of Madhya Pradesh, these districts/area are landlocked far away from any coastal area.
• Dry, Rocky Topography: The terrain is largely dry, rocky, and consists of semi-arid vegetation. With little moisture in the soil, the sun’s intense radiation quickly heats up the landmass, causing rapid local surface heating.
• "Loo" Winds: Hot, dry, and dusty westerly or north-westerly winds originating from the Thar Desert in Rajasthan sweep straight across the plains into these regions, driving daytime temperatures significantly above normal.
• Cyclonic Circulations & Troughs: Frequently during peak summer, weather phenomena like troughs or low-level cyclonic circulations form over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan. These systems draw more heat and block cooler, moist air from the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea.

 

 

बुन्देलखण्ड (मध्यप्रदेश) के लिए खरीफ 2026 सूखा प्रबंधन सलाह

 

बुन्देलखण्ड (मध्यप्रदेश) के लिए खरीफ 2026 सूखा प्रबंधन सलाह 
(जिले: टीकमगढ़, निवाडी,छतरपुर, , दतिया)

 

संभावित मौसम स्थिति (2026)

 

• मानसून सामान्य से कम रहने की संभावना
• अगस्त–सितम्बर में वर्षा की कमी (मुख्य जोखिम)
• लम्बे सूखे अंतराल (10–20 दिन) संभव

 

मुख्य संदेश: फसल चयन और प्रबंधन “कम वर्षा + सूखे अंतराल” को ध्यान में रखकर करें

 

जिला-वार फसल सलाह

 

टीकमगढ़ ,निवाड़ी / छतरपुर

• उपयुक्त फसलें:
• बाजरा + अरहर (2:1)
• तिल (जून अंत–जुलाई प्रारंभ)
• विकल्प: उड़द / मूंग (अल्प अवधि)
• न करें: सोयाबीन, धान (बारानी)

 

दतिया (अधिक सूखा प्रभावित)

• सबसे उपयुक्त:
• बाजरा, ज्वार, अरहर
• विकल्प: लोबिया (चारा + दाल)
• रणनीति: कम लागत, कम जोखिम खेती अपनाएँ

 

फसल चयन (प्राथमिकता)

 

अधिक उपयुक्त

• बाजरा
• ज्वार
• अरहर
• लोबिया

 

 

 

 मध्यम

• तिल
• उड़द / मूंग

 

जोखिम वाली

• सोयाबीन (लंबी अवधि)
• धान (बिना सिंचाई)
• मक्का

 

सूखा प्रबंधन उपाय

1. नमी संरक्षण

• मेड़–नाली विधि
• मल्चिंग (फसल अवशेष)
• गहरी जुताई

2. मध्य-ऋतु सुधार

• पौधों की छंटाई (thinning)
• खाली स्थान पर पुनः बुवाई

3. पोषण प्रबंधन

• 1% पोटाश (KNO₃) का छिड़काव
• 2% यूरिया का छिड़काव

 

 महत्वपूर्ण समय

स्थिति	क्या करें
मानसून देर से	बाजरा/दालें बोएँ
जुलाई में कम वर्षा	सोयाबीन कम करें
अगस्त सूखा	छिड़काव + नमी संरक्षण
अधिक सूखा	चारा फसल अपनाएँ

 

 किसान भाइयों के लिए संदेश

“अगस्त में सूखे की संभावना को देखते हुए बाजरा, अरहर, तिल और दलहनी फसलों को प्राथमिकता दें। सोयाबीन और धान से बचें जब तक सिंचाई सुविधा उपलब्ध न हो।”