बुन्देलखण्ड (मध्यप्रदेश) के लिए खरीफ 2026 सूखा प्रबंधन सलाह

 

बुन्देलखण्ड (मध्यप्रदेश) के लिए खरीफ 2026 सूखा प्रबंधन सलाह 
(जिले: टीकमगढ़, निवाडी,छतरपुर, , दतिया)

 

संभावित मौसम स्थिति (2026)

 

• मानसून सामान्य से कम रहने की संभावना
• अगस्त–सितम्बर में वर्षा की कमी (मुख्य जोखिम)
• लम्बे सूखे अंतराल (10–20 दिन) संभव

 

मुख्य संदेश: फसल चयन और प्रबंधन “कम वर्षा + सूखे अंतराल” को ध्यान में रखकर करें

 

जिला-वार फसल सलाह

 

टीकमगढ़ ,निवाड़ी / छतरपुर

• उपयुक्त फसलें:
• बाजरा + अरहर (2:1)
• तिल (जून अंत–जुलाई प्रारंभ)
• विकल्प: उड़द / मूंग (अल्प अवधि)
• न करें: सोयाबीन, धान (बारानी)

 

दतिया (अधिक सूखा प्रभावित)

• सबसे उपयुक्त:
• बाजरा, ज्वार, अरहर
• विकल्प: लोबिया (चारा + दाल)
• रणनीति: कम लागत, कम जोखिम खेती अपनाएँ

 

फसल चयन (प्राथमिकता)

 

अधिक उपयुक्त

• बाजरा
• ज्वार
• अरहर
• लोबिया

 

 

 

 मध्यम

• तिल
• उड़द / मूंग

 

जोखिम वाली

• सोयाबीन (लंबी अवधि)
• धान (बिना सिंचाई)
• मक्का

 

सूखा प्रबंधन उपाय

1. नमी संरक्षण

• मेड़–नाली विधि
• मल्चिंग (फसल अवशेष)
• गहरी जुताई

2. मध्य-ऋतु सुधार

• पौधों की छंटाई (thinning)
• खाली स्थान पर पुनः बुवाई

3. पोषण प्रबंधन

• 1% पोटाश (KNO₃) का छिड़काव
• 2% यूरिया का छिड़काव

 

 महत्वपूर्ण समय

स्थिति	क्या करें
मानसून देर से	बाजरा/दालें बोएँ
जुलाई में कम वर्षा	सोयाबीन कम करें
अगस्त सूखा	छिड़काव + नमी संरक्षण
अधिक सूखा	चारा फसल अपनाएँ

 

 किसान भाइयों के लिए संदेश

“अगस्त में सूखे की संभावना को देखते हुए बाजरा, अरहर, तिल और दलहनी फसलों को प्राथमिकता दें। सोयाबीन और धान से बचें जब तक सिंचाई सुविधा उपलब्ध न हो।”

 

The weather forecast for December 2025 ( Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone)

 

Present weather conditions

The minimum temperature recorded very low in central India (including Jabalpur, Tikamgarh of Madhya Pradesh). This seems this zone is entering into a cooler phase, with below normal night temperatures and possibility of several additional cold-wave days up to 16-20th December. The minimum temperature recorded at Pachmarhi is 5°C and at Jabalpur and Tikamgarh 4.6 and 5.6 respectively. These lower values of night temperature are recorded; when there is not much snowfall observed in northwest India due to western disturbance (WD). The WD is not affecting the temperature conditions of Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone .

15-20 December

Between 10 and around mid-December, certain parts of the Bundelkhand Agro climatic zone may see medium fog (especially in morning), cold-wave conditions, (especially in undulating surface, eastern or northeastern areas). The weather conditions are expected to remain variable during the month meaning temperature swings, possible chilly nights, and mild or moderate daytime temperatures, and regional variation in rainfall/wind/fog. There is possibility of passing of a WD during this period over northern western region and formation low pressure area over western Uttar Pradesh and hence cloudy condition is expected during this period and day temperature will started to fall be 2-3 °C and increase in night temperature also.

21-31-December

Possibility of a strong WD passing over north India and formation of low pressure in Rajasthan will bring isolated rainfall and cloudy condition in Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone.  After isolated rainfall dense fog will be expected in this zone affecting crop growth and development.

 

Wheat sowing may be one week earlier to the recommended sowing window in the Bundelkhand region of Central India

 

Wheat sowing may be one week earlier to the recommended sowing window in the Bundelkhand region of Central India

The optimum temperature range for sowing wheat in the Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh is between 20°C and 25°C. However, the ideal mean daily temperature for sowing is slightly lower, around 20°C to 23°C. In Central India, the recommended sowing window (timely sowing) is mainly early–mid November so that mean daily temperatures at sowing and early growth are in the desirable range.

Temperature requirements for wheat sowing and germination

Sowing/Germination: Wheat seeds germinate best in a temperature range of 20°C to 25°C. A warm and damp climate is not suitable for early growth. For wheat in the Bundelkhand region of Central India, the optimum daily mean temperature for sowing is around 22–23°C. Sowing should ideally begin when average daily temperatures fall to this range, which promotes healthy seed germination and good crop establishment. This recommendation is widely cited for wheat cultivation in Central Indian agro-climatic zones, including Bundelkhand.

Best sowing time

Bundelkhand falls under the Central Zone for wheat production, which includes Madhya Pradesh. For this region, the optimal time for sowing is generally the first fortnight of November under irrigated conditions ( Figure 1). Timely sowing is crucial, as delaying it can reduce crop duration and expose the plant to heat stress during the grain-filling stage, which drastically lowers yields. 

Rabi 2025

The maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded on 9th October 2025, at 31.5 °C and 19.0°C, and on 10th October 2025, at 29.8 °C and 17.5°C. It was observed that after October 7, 2025, there has been a continuous decrease in both maximum and minimum temperatures. It is expected that after two weeks (the last week of October 2025), the mean temperature will be in the range of 22-23°C. Thus, this year, the sowing of irrigated wheat will start one week before the recommended sowing window. The sowing of rainfed wheat is also started one week in advance, i.e, during the current week (second week of October 2025). Sowing moisture is also adequate for the sowing of all rabi crops.

Practical rule-of-thumb for Bundelkhand

For Bundelkhand (central India) aim for a mean daily air temperature ~20–24°Cat sowing (commonly reported as 23±3 °C). Germination is best when mean daily temperature is ~20–25 °C.

Prefer sowing when the 5–7 day running mean of daily temperature is close to 20–24 °C.

Ensure adequate soil moisture at sowing (germination depends on moisture as much as temperature).

Colder winter 2025-26 (Rabi season) and general outlook

 

The state Madhya Pradesh has received above average rainfall in monsoon season.  The 1-1.5°C below normal high temperature and 1.5-2°C above normal minimum temperatures have been recorded over the most part of Madhya Pradesh during second fortnight of September 2025. India Meteorological Department predicted a colder winter 2025-26 and hence the crops like, wheat, mustard, chickpea and pea as well as many vegetables crop could have better growth and yield. Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

La Niña and prediction of winters cooler in parts of India

La Niña is the cold phase of ENSO (cooler-than-normal equatorial Pacific SSTs). It shifts large-scale circulation patterns (jet streams and storm tracks) that influence the subcontinent.

For northern & central India, several studies and operational forecasts show La Niña can increase the frequency/intensity of western disturbances and promote anomalous cooling in winter, producing colder spells and sometimes increased winter precipitation in some years (though details vary by event and region).

Operational agencies (IMD/CPC/WMO discussions in 2024–25) flagged a rising chance of La Niña for late 2025 and warned that a La Niña winter often correlates with colder-than-usual winter conditions across northern India.

East Madhya Pradesh

Minimum (night) temperatures: more likely to be below climatological normal on average during the core winter months (Dec–Jan), with an increased chance of cold nights and intermittent cold-wave events.

Expect a higher frequency of nights near the climatological cold extremes rather than a uniform shift everywhere. Maximum (day) temperatures: daytime values may be only modestly affected (cloud cover and WDs modulate daytime heating), but prolonged cloudy/wet spells from WDs would reduce daytime maxima during those spells.

Rainfall / fog: Some La Niña-linked circulation changes can alter western disturbance tracks — parts of north/central India sometimes see increased winter cloud/precipitation in certain La Niña events. Increased cloud/fog will raise night minima (reduce radiative cooling) locally, so impacts are spatially variable.

Role of GKMS

Alert for cold-sensitive crops (early stages of rabi crops, vegetables): prepare advisories for frost protection, delayed irrigation timings to reduce cold stress where needed.

Livestock: advise shelters, bedding, and feed buffering for expected cold spells.

Forecast-ready advisories: emphasize close monitoring of IMD/GKMS bulletins and local synoptic updates; issue short-term advisories when a strong western disturbance / cold-wave is imminent.

Post-event assessment: if La Niña brings more winter precipitation, prepare for waterlogging or delayed field operations in low-lying areas.

Automation of Agromet Advisory by IMD and ICRISAT vs Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) : Efforts to join the missing dots

 

Automation of Agromet Advisory by IMD and ICRISAT vs Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) : Efforts to join the missing dots

The ICRISAT has launched artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to deliver personalized, real-time climate advisory services to farmers. Earlier, IMD, MoES had tried to developed e-advisory for farmers and its automated generation utilizing weather forecast and remote sensing inputs. But still are not in an operation mode at district level advisories formulation. The two things one has to consider that observed verses forecast pattern either it lies in weather or the agromet advisory. Are observed weather has shown any pattern or in the agromet advisories, if yes automation works precisely, if yes automation works precisely, if not replication by automation is only refinement. If you have some patten than AI will work better than any model.

Weather pattern could have forecast probabilities, which are based on the number of ensemble members assigned to each weather pattern. Robert et al. (2022) have reported that the winter dry period weather patterns have the highest forecast skill, closely followed by retreating monsoon weather patterns. In contrast, monsoon onset and break monsoon weather patterns have the lowest forecast skill.

Though the bi-weekly agromet advisory provides farmers with localized agricultural advice based on weather forecasts, crop stage, soil conditions, pest/disease risks, and agricultural best practices, typically issued every 4-5 days.

To have more precise weather forecast the GoI had launched the BFS which may provide highly accurate, real-time weather predictions at an unprecedented 6-kilometer resolution, a significant improvement over the previous 12-kilometer system. This allows for village-level forecasts up to 10 days in advance.

Comments are given by many scholars that one has to consider weather parameters rather than rather variables, use of AI in weather forecasting and agromet advisory. To define a model or define the state parameters are more suitable than variables. The other know dots or difficulties involves in weather forecasting are tropical weather is inherently more chaotic, complex interactions with weather systems, data gaps and randomness. Hence, we need to connect all these dots.

AI and forecasting have limitations

AI cannot reliably predict the toss of a One Day International (ODI) cricket match or any coin toss because the outcome is random by nature. Although the probability is 50 50 just like rain or no rain.

Where chaos and complex interaction exits, precise quantitative forecasting may be not has 95-100 probability. Randomness in output restrict the use of AI, Hopeful for e-advisory and AI forecast would be made automation more precise in this decade.

 

Late sowing

 

CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR CONTINUOUS RAINFALL AFTER MONSOON ONSET

Contingency planning during continuous rainfall after the onset of monsoon—especially in vulnerable regions like the Bundelkhand agro-climatic zone of Madhya Pradesh—is crucial to prevent waterlogging, crop damage, seedling mortality, and nutrient loss.

Contingency plans for up to ~30 July

Sowing of even earlier maturing varieties becomes critical; emphasis shifts toward very short-duration jowar hybrids, and pulses suitable under late rainfall scenarios.

Very short-duration, fast-maturing jowar hybrids, pulses..Heavy soils still allow paddy.

 

CONTINGENCY MEASURES

 

Land Preparation & Field Management

• Ensure proper drainage before sowing:
• Use broad-bed and furrow (BBF) system in black soils.
• Create furrows between crop rows to drain excess water.
• Open field bunds at intervals to let excess rainwater out.
• Avoid deep ploughing during saturated conditions—wait for soil to settle.

Crop Planning & Sowing Adjustments

If sowing was not done before heavy rain:

Situation	Recommendation
Field saturated, sowing pending	Wait till surface dries enough for seed to not rot
Sown crop lost to waterlogging	Re-sow with short-duration pulses or oilseeds (e.g. urad, moong, sesame)
Standing crop waterlogged	Open drainage furrows; consider planting on ridges in future

 

Crop Selection

Choose:

• Short-duration, waterlogging-tolerant varieties of:
• Urad (T-9, IPU 94-1)
• Sesame (JT 21, TKG 22)
• Jowar/Bajra hybrids
• Consider intercropping (e.g. maize + cowpea or  pigeon pea) to reduce total risk.

Nutrient Management

• Continuous rain leaches nitrogen (N); apply split N doses.
• Foliar spray of urea (2%) or DAP (2%) can help weak crops recover.
• Avoid heavy basal application when heavy rain is forecast.

Pest and Disease Monitoring

• Watch for:
• Damping-off in seedlings
• Root rot, collar rot, leaf blight
• Use preventive fungicides (e.g., Trichoderma, Carbendazim for seed treatment)
• Improve aeration by inter-row hoeing once rain stops

Livelihood & Fodder Planning

• Ensure fodder availability if crop loss is expected:
• Plant fast-growing fodder: sorghum (MP Chari), maize, cowpea
• Use bunds and fallow areas for fodder crops
•  

Case-Specific Advice

• Use intercropping systems like:
• Pigeon pea + urad/moong
• Pigeon pea + Jowar
• Maize
• In extremely wet fields, delay sowing and focus on nursery raising (for vegetables or rice) in raised beds.