Rainfall during June-July and kharif crop in Bundelkhand

 

Rainfall Observed at Tikamgarh

Month	May	June	July
Normal	6.0	78	311
Actual observed	70.4	22.3	80mm(1-6July)

Rainfall observed during June was below 65% of the normal rainfall at Tikamgarh. After the onset of monsoon (2^nd July,2026) rainfall was observed and farmers are able to sow their kharif crops. It is expected a light to medium rainfall during next 3-4 days in Bundelkhand agroclimatic zone.

Rainfall in July 2026

• IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for July 2026, with all-India rainfall expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to the strengthening El Niño. Central India, including Bundelkhand, is expected to experience uneven rainfall distribution, with long dry spells interrupted by a few heavy rainfall events rather than regular widespread rain. Although rainfall activity may improve during parts of July, the month as a whole is still likely to remain below normal. Kharif crop sowing status

Across India:

• By late June 2026, kharif sowing was about 23% lower than the previous year because of delayed monsoon onset and rainfall deficiency. For Bundelkhand, the likely situation is:

• Delayed sowing of soybean, pigeonpea (arhar), sesame, black gram (urd), green gram (moong), and maize in rainfed areas.
• Farmers are waiting for 50–75 mm of cumulative rainfall before undertaking large-scale sowing.
• Early-sown crops may face moisture stress if dry spells exceed 10–15 days.

Crop-wise recommendations

Rainfall situation	Recommended crops
Sowing before 15 July	Soybean, sesame, maize, pigeonpea
Sowing during 15–25 July	Short-duration soybean, urd, moong, sesame
Sowing after 25 July	Black gram, sesame, pearl millet, fodder crops
Very late sowing (after early August)	Horse gram, cowpea, fodder sorghum

Advisory for Bundelkhand farmers

• Wait until adequate soil moisture is available before sowing.
• Prefer short-duration and drought-tolerant varieties if sowing is delayed.
• Complete seed treatment with fungicide and biofertilizers before sowing.
• Maintain moisture through ridge–furrow planting and mulching where possible.
• Keep contingency seed available in case re-sowing becomes necessary.

Outlook for the rest of the season

If the predicted strong El Niño persists and August–September rainfall also remains below normal, Bundelkhand may experience:

• Reduced soybean and maize yields.
• Better performance of pigeonpea and sesame compared with soybean.
• Greater need for life-saving irrigation where water is available.
• Increased risk of mid-season agricultural drought, especially in shallow black and red soils.

 

The relationship between may rainfall and monsoon rainfall at Tikamgarh is very weak.

This year a total of 70.4mm rainfall was recorded at Tikamgarh . The IMD forecasted a below normal rainfall (92% of LPA) in central India. As per IMD,  the rainfall in July and August will be below normal and expected a long duration of break in Monsoon. 

Monsoon is onset today at Kerela and expected to onset during third week of June in Tikamgarh .

Our prediction based on some other uncorrelated factors is that  Tikamgarh will received normal rainfall in June and July but expected below normal in August 2026.

Why high day temperature recorded in Bundelkhand during summer seasons

 

In Bundelkhand agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh Khajuraho and Datia often record some of the highest maximum temperatures in India due to a combination of their geographic location, topography, and prevailing wind patterns. Recently, Khajuraho recorded temperatures around 46–47°C, making it one of the hottest places in India during the heatwave period. Datia has also repeatedly appeared among the hottest stations in the country during severe heat events.

The kay reasons

 

• Location and  Lack of Moisture:  Bundelkhand is located in northern plains of Madhya Pradesh, these districts/area are landlocked far away from any coastal area.
• Dry, Rocky Topography: The terrain is largely dry, rocky, and consists of semi-arid vegetation. With little moisture in the soil, the sun’s intense radiation quickly heats up the landmass, causing rapid local surface heating.
• "Loo" Winds: Hot, dry, and dusty westerly or north-westerly winds originating from the Thar Desert in Rajasthan sweep straight across the plains into these regions, driving daytime temperatures significantly above normal.
• Cyclonic Circulations & Troughs: Frequently during peak summer, weather phenomena like troughs or low-level cyclonic circulations form over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan. These systems draw more heat and block cooler, moist air from the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea.

 

 

बुन्देलखण्ड (मध्यप्रदेश) के लिए खरीफ 2026 सूखा प्रबंधन सलाह

 

बुन्देलखण्ड (मध्यप्रदेश) के लिए खरीफ 2026 सूखा प्रबंधन सलाह 
(जिले: टीकमगढ़, निवाडी,छतरपुर, , दतिया)

 

संभावित मौसम स्थिति (2026)

 

• मानसून सामान्य से कम रहने की संभावना
• अगस्त–सितम्बर में वर्षा की कमी (मुख्य जोखिम)
• लम्बे सूखे अंतराल (10–20 दिन) संभव

 

मुख्य संदेश: फसल चयन और प्रबंधन “कम वर्षा + सूखे अंतराल” को ध्यान में रखकर करें

 

जिला-वार फसल सलाह

 

टीकमगढ़ ,निवाड़ी / छतरपुर

• उपयुक्त फसलें:
• बाजरा + अरहर (2:1)
• तिल (जून अंत–जुलाई प्रारंभ)
• विकल्प: उड़द / मूंग (अल्प अवधि)
• न करें: सोयाबीन, धान (बारानी)

 

दतिया (अधिक सूखा प्रभावित)

• सबसे उपयुक्त:
• बाजरा, ज्वार, अरहर
• विकल्प: लोबिया (चारा + दाल)
• रणनीति: कम लागत, कम जोखिम खेती अपनाएँ

 

फसल चयन (प्राथमिकता)

 

अधिक उपयुक्त

• बाजरा
• ज्वार
• अरहर
• लोबिया

 

 

 

 मध्यम

• तिल
• उड़द / मूंग

 

जोखिम वाली

• सोयाबीन (लंबी अवधि)
• धान (बिना सिंचाई)
• मक्का

 

सूखा प्रबंधन उपाय

1. नमी संरक्षण

• मेड़–नाली विधि
• मल्चिंग (फसल अवशेष)
• गहरी जुताई

2. मध्य-ऋतु सुधार

• पौधों की छंटाई (thinning)
• खाली स्थान पर पुनः बुवाई

3. पोषण प्रबंधन

• 1% पोटाश (KNO₃) का छिड़काव
• 2% यूरिया का छिड़काव

 

 महत्वपूर्ण समय

स्थिति	क्या करें
मानसून देर से	बाजरा/दालें बोएँ
जुलाई में कम वर्षा	सोयाबीन कम करें
अगस्त सूखा	छिड़काव + नमी संरक्षण
अधिक सूखा	चारा फसल अपनाएँ

 

 किसान भाइयों के लिए संदेश

“अगस्त में सूखे की संभावना को देखते हुए बाजरा, अरहर, तिल और दलहनी फसलों को प्राथमिकता दें। सोयाबीन और धान से बचें जब तक सिंचाई सुविधा उपलब्ध न हो।”

 

The weather forecast for December 2025 ( Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone)

 

Present weather conditions

The minimum temperature recorded very low in central India (including Jabalpur, Tikamgarh of Madhya Pradesh). This seems this zone is entering into a cooler phase, with below normal night temperatures and possibility of several additional cold-wave days up to 16-20th December. The minimum temperature recorded at Pachmarhi is 5°C and at Jabalpur and Tikamgarh 4.6 and 5.6 respectively. These lower values of night temperature are recorded; when there is not much snowfall observed in northwest India due to western disturbance (WD). The WD is not affecting the temperature conditions of Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone .

15-20 December

Between 10 and around mid-December, certain parts of the Bundelkhand Agro climatic zone may see medium fog (especially in morning), cold-wave conditions, (especially in undulating surface, eastern or northeastern areas). The weather conditions are expected to remain variable during the month meaning temperature swings, possible chilly nights, and mild or moderate daytime temperatures, and regional variation in rainfall/wind/fog. There is possibility of passing of a WD during this period over northern western region and formation low pressure area over western Uttar Pradesh and hence cloudy condition is expected during this period and day temperature will started to fall be 2-3 °C and increase in night temperature also.

21-31-December

Possibility of a strong WD passing over north India and formation of low pressure in Rajasthan will bring isolated rainfall and cloudy condition in Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone.  After isolated rainfall dense fog will be expected in this zone affecting crop growth and development.

 

Wheat sowing may be one week earlier to the recommended sowing window in the Bundelkhand region of Central India

 

Wheat sowing may be one week earlier to the recommended sowing window in the Bundelkhand region of Central India

The optimum temperature range for sowing wheat in the Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh is between 20°C and 25°C. However, the ideal mean daily temperature for sowing is slightly lower, around 20°C to 23°C. In Central India, the recommended sowing window (timely sowing) is mainly early–mid November so that mean daily temperatures at sowing and early growth are in the desirable range.

Temperature requirements for wheat sowing and germination

Sowing/Germination: Wheat seeds germinate best in a temperature range of 20°C to 25°C. A warm and damp climate is not suitable for early growth. For wheat in the Bundelkhand region of Central India, the optimum daily mean temperature for sowing is around 22–23°C. Sowing should ideally begin when average daily temperatures fall to this range, which promotes healthy seed germination and good crop establishment. This recommendation is widely cited for wheat cultivation in Central Indian agro-climatic zones, including Bundelkhand.

Best sowing time

Bundelkhand falls under the Central Zone for wheat production, which includes Madhya Pradesh. For this region, the optimal time for sowing is generally the first fortnight of November under irrigated conditions ( Figure 1). Timely sowing is crucial, as delaying it can reduce crop duration and expose the plant to heat stress during the grain-filling stage, which drastically lowers yields. 

Rabi 2025

The maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded on 9th October 2025, at 31.5 °C and 19.0°C, and on 10th October 2025, at 29.8 °C and 17.5°C. It was observed that after October 7, 2025, there has been a continuous decrease in both maximum and minimum temperatures. It is expected that after two weeks (the last week of October 2025), the mean temperature will be in the range of 22-23°C. Thus, this year, the sowing of irrigated wheat will start one week before the recommended sowing window. The sowing of rainfed wheat is also started one week in advance, i.e, during the current week (second week of October 2025). Sowing moisture is also adequate for the sowing of all rabi crops.

Practical rule-of-thumb for Bundelkhand

For Bundelkhand (central India) aim for a mean daily air temperature ~20–24°Cat sowing (commonly reported as 23±3 °C). Germination is best when mean daily temperature is ~20–25 °C.

Prefer sowing when the 5–7 day running mean of daily temperature is close to 20–24 °C.

Ensure adequate soil moisture at sowing (germination depends on moisture as much as temperature).

Colder winter 2025-26 (Rabi season) and general outlook

 

The state Madhya Pradesh has received above average rainfall in monsoon season.  The 1-1.5°C below normal high temperature and 1.5-2°C above normal minimum temperatures have been recorded over the most part of Madhya Pradesh during second fortnight of September 2025. India Meteorological Department predicted a colder winter 2025-26 and hence the crops like, wheat, mustard, chickpea and pea as well as many vegetables crop could have better growth and yield. Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

La Niña and prediction of winters cooler in parts of India

La Niña is the cold phase of ENSO (cooler-than-normal equatorial Pacific SSTs). It shifts large-scale circulation patterns (jet streams and storm tracks) that influence the subcontinent.

For northern & central India, several studies and operational forecasts show La Niña can increase the frequency/intensity of western disturbances and promote anomalous cooling in winter, producing colder spells and sometimes increased winter precipitation in some years (though details vary by event and region).

Operational agencies (IMD/CPC/WMO discussions in 2024–25) flagged a rising chance of La Niña for late 2025 and warned that a La Niña winter often correlates with colder-than-usual winter conditions across northern India.

East Madhya Pradesh

Minimum (night) temperatures: more likely to be below climatological normal on average during the core winter months (Dec–Jan), with an increased chance of cold nights and intermittent cold-wave events.

Expect a higher frequency of nights near the climatological cold extremes rather than a uniform shift everywhere. Maximum (day) temperatures: daytime values may be only modestly affected (cloud cover and WDs modulate daytime heating), but prolonged cloudy/wet spells from WDs would reduce daytime maxima during those spells.

Rainfall / fog: Some La Niña-linked circulation changes can alter western disturbance tracks — parts of north/central India sometimes see increased winter cloud/precipitation in certain La Niña events. Increased cloud/fog will raise night minima (reduce radiative cooling) locally, so impacts are spatially variable.

Role of GKMS

Alert for cold-sensitive crops (early stages of rabi crops, vegetables): prepare advisories for frost protection, delayed irrigation timings to reduce cold stress where needed.

Livestock: advise shelters, bedding, and feed buffering for expected cold spells.

Forecast-ready advisories: emphasize close monitoring of IMD/GKMS bulletins and local synoptic updates; issue short-term advisories when a strong western disturbance / cold-wave is imminent.

Post-event assessment: if La Niña brings more winter precipitation, prepare for waterlogging or delayed field operations in low-lying areas.