Rain forecast and kharif sowing in Tikamgarh

 

                                                          Rainfall forecast 

                                                   Wind flow pattern and low pressure 

The above two figures are the projection of rainfall and wind flow pattern over India, by IMD on 13^th July 2025. The heavy rainfall forecast during 11-13 July, 2025 delayed the kharif crop sowing in Tikamgarh of The Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh. One a few farmers have sown their kharif crops during 19-20^th  June,2025. However, these crop are healthy but the major risk is grazing of crops by free wandering cattle’s in this area.

The possibility of scattered rain with a little bit of sunny weather will provide a change of sowing of short duration pulse and oilseed crops in this zone after 13^th July.

 

Weather forecast for Tikamgarh, Madhya Pradesh, India:

There is possibility of overcast sky with moderate to heavy rainfall at most of the places during 9-12-13^th July, 2025.

Weather Outlook (July 10–15, 2025, Tikamgarh, MP)

• Frequent clouds and showers each day; rainfall intensity will vary from light to moderate, with occasional heavy spells.
• Temperatures will stay moderate — highs around 29–32 °C, lows between 24–26 °C.

Weather alerts indicate heavy to very heavy rainfall for parts of MP around July 10–12,

Crop Advisories for Kharif

Based on local and statewide agromet guidance:

1. Rice (Paddy)

• Transplant 20–25 day-old seedlings at 20 × 10 cm spacing.
• Before planting, apply: N:100 kg/ha, P₂O₅:60 kg/ha, K₂O:40 kg/ha, Zinc sulfate:25 kg/ha.
• Add Blue Green Algae (BGA) in standing-water fields for natural nitrogen enrichment.
• Maintain strong bunds to conserve rainwater.

2. Fodder Sorghum & Lobia (Cowpea)

• Now is ideal time to sow fodder sorghum (e.g., Pusa chari‑9 or Pusa chari‑6) at ~40 kg/ha.
• Cowpea sowing is recommended after 2^nd  week of July.

3. Rainy‑Season Vegetables (Chilli, Brinjal, Cauliflower, Cucurbits)

• Remove excess water by making ridge and furrow method.
• Transplant brinjal, chilli, early cauliflower if seedlings are ready.
• Direct-sow cucurbits—bottle gourd, bitter gourd, pumpkin, cucumber—while soil is dry .

4. Orchards (Newly Planted)

• Dig 1 m³ pits, fill with decomposed FYM.
• Treat with Chlorpyrifos 20 EC at 5 mL/L to prevent soil pests.
• Translating of fruits plant is recommended.

5. Soil & Water Management

• Apply decomposed FYM/compost before sowing.
• Stop foliar sprays during heavy rains.
• Build on-field water storage (e.g., farm bunds) to capture rainwater for later irrigation.
• Manage drainage efficiently to avoid waterlogging during forecast heavy rains.

Flash Flood & Excess Rain Risks

• With potential heavy downpours, monitor for:
• Waterlogging in low-lying crops (rice, Oil seeds, pulses).
• Soil erosion; protect with bunds and mulches.
• Increased disease risk in pulses use timely drainage and fungicide sprays if needed.
• Seasonal flooding: fields near streams may require temporary diversion channels.

Farmers’ Quick Checklist:

Task	Action
Nursery Fields	Ensure good drainage, shade nets for seedlings
Transplanting	Paddy: transplant now; vegetables: transplant/sow timely
Soil Fertility	Apply FYM/compost and soil-specific fertilisers
Drainage Setup	Create channels to avoid waterlogging during heavy rains
Post-Rain Check	Watch for fungal infections; apply fungicides if signs appear
Water Harvesting	Strengthen bunds, construct shallow ponds/drops for irrigation

 

Weather forecast and farmers

 

The estimated the possibility of rainfall in July by IMD is given more than 106 percent means , July rainfall will be also nearly 400-500mm in central India. The Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh has received from 18 June to 01 July from 300 to400mm rainfall. The rainfall spells prevented the farmers from kharif sowing and again there may be possibility of the  widespread rainfall up to 5th July 2025. If the future rainfall spells may continue up to 12-15 July , farmers are not able to do sowing in the field. After 15th July sowing will reduce the yield return, this is a peculiar situation  in kharif season, when the onset of monsoon is in time rainfall received widespread and above normal but not beneficial for farmers of the zone. 

But I have some different view that there may be a break in widespread rainfall during July after 10-12 July, but this may put some stress on the framers towards sowing the crops. Delayed sowing of crops like soybean, Groundnut, Urd, etc may reduced the return of farmers. The other view are given below:

Rainfall Pattern in Bundelkhand

Bundelkhand, covering parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, is a semi-arid to sub-humid zone, mainly dependent on the southwest monsoon (June–September) for rainfall. The monsoon contributes over 85–90% of the annual rainfall.

Here’s the general distribution of monsoon rainfall in Bundelkhand:

• June: 15–20% (normally)

• July: 35–40%

• August: 25–30%

• September: 10–15%

If June Receives 40% of Annual Rainfall...

This is much higher than average. If 40% falls in June alone, that leaves only 60% of the total annual rainfall for the remaining months (July–September).

Possible Scenarios:

• This may indicate an early and heavy onset of monsoon.

• There is a chance of reduced rainfall in July and August due to:

  • Shift in monsoon dynamics.

  • Dry spells following early heavy rains (common in monsoon breaks).

  • Localized variations.

3. Estimated Possibility (in % of Annual Rainfall):

Assuming June got 40%:

• July: ~25–30%

• August: ~20–25%

• September: ~5–10%

So, July + August rainfall could be 45–55% of the total annual rainfall.

4. Risk Assessment for Agriculture

• The early heavy rains in June could lead to early sowing, but if July/August rains are lower than normal, crop stress (especially in rainfed areas) is a risk.

• Water conservation and soil moisture retention strategies become crucial.

Summary

If June receives 40% of total annual rainfall, it's likely that July and August will jointly contribute about 45–55%, but there's a possibility of below-normal rainfall in these months. Monitoring IMD forecasts and preparing for dry spells is essential.

 Overview of the breaks and progress in the 2025 Indian monsoon:

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🟢 1. Post-onset stall in early June

• The monsoon arrived early (May 24 in Kerala; reached Mumbai by May 26), but then paused around May 29 – particularly over Maharashtra and North Bengal – causing a ~25 % rainfall deficit during June 1–8.

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🔵 2. Two-week lull till mid-June

• After stalling at the Maharashtra coast, the monsoon remained stalled for nearly 13 days. According to IMD, it only resumed northward progress around June 12–15, bringing heavy rains back to Karnataka, Konkan & Goa.

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🌧️ 3. Regional variability continues

• Even after the revival, progress into Central India, Delhi, Haryana, UP, and Northeast remained uneven, with some areas still experiencing delays or patchy rains .

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    Context & Causes

• Early monsoon onset and intense Western Disturbances in May 2025 (5–7 events vs. 1–2 usual) sped up initial rains but didn’t support steady northward movement .

• Delayed progression was linked to weak Bay of Bengal branch, dominance of the Arabian Sea branch, and neutral ENSO/IOD conditions—meaning favorable for rain quantity overall, but not consistent spread.

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🗓️ Summary Table

Phase	Dates (approx.)	What happened
Early onset	May 24 – 26	Kerala → Mumbai movement faster than usual
Pause	~May 29 – June 11	Monsoon stalled in Maharashtra & North Bengal
Revival	June 12 – 15	Resumed northward spread with heavy rainfall in southwest
Ongoing uneven spread	Mid-June onward	Patchy or delayed in Delhi, central India, Northeast

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 In Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone after the onset of monsoon 18th June to 30th June,2025, a total of around 400mm rainfall was received. Three days are without rainfall during 13days period with 8 rainy days. The continuity in rainfall spell put the sowing operation of kharif crops on hold. It is expected that after 10th  July , there will be possibility of a pause in monsoon rainfall for a few days. 

 

Early arrival of Monsoon and its progress towards Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh

This year the onset of monsoon in India is 15days before and many thunderstorm activities have occurred across the Indian states. It is expected as usual, that progress of monsoon is normal and reached in Bundelkhand agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh as early as 10-15^th June, but it may be arrived here after 17^th June. However the light to moderate rain is expected to receive as pre-monsoon showers in this region, which may be beneficial for farmers who are eager to cultivate the early kharif crops like soybean, vegetables etc. It is advised to the farmers that looking the above normal rainfall forecast during monsoon season to cultivate soybean and other important vegetable crops during the

monsoon season

n.

 

Possibility of scattered rain during 11-13 January in eastern- North parts of Bundelkhand region of MP

 

There is possibility of isolated rain accomplish with thunder during 11-13 January 2025 in Bundelkhand region of MP. The possibility of hailstorm is also not ruled out. Therefore farmers are advised to delay the irrigation and insecticide /pesticide application in crops. The light to moderate fog will continue for next 7-10 days. The cloudy sky may enhanced the minimum temperature after 3-4 days, hence borer activity may be increased in pulses and oilseed crops. Farmers are advised to keep watch and do frequent surveillance of their crop.

Night will be cooler than normal during October 2024

 

Today night temperature recorded 20.5, which is 2.3°C below normal (normal night temperature is 22.8°C) at Tikamgarh, M.P.. Thus the mean daily temperature is also expected to below normal during October 2024, which is beneficial for rabi sowing.  After retreat of monsoon, farmers are advised to start sowing of early peas, Toria, Mustard for vegetable purpose for utilization of stored soil moisture. Early sowing of Chickpea after 15^th October is also advisable. The mean daily temperature for sowing of barley and rainfed wheat may be started around 20^th October. It is advised the farmers to keep watch on biweekly weather forecast and soil moisture conditions for rabi sowing in Bundelkhand of Madhya Pradesh.  

Hottest days during last week of May in Bundelkhand and Rainfall during June 2024

 

The day maximum temperature is recorded very high during 24- 31^st May 2024 in many places in Bundelkhand agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh. The Niwari district of Madhya Pradesh recorded 48.7°C on 27^th May 2024and reported to the hottest places in Madhya Pradesh. The high temperature during last week of May or Navtapa is believed to be beneficial for agriculture as well as rainfall during kharif season. The rainfall during the monsoon season in central India is predicted above normal by India Meteorological Department.

It is expected that rainfall during June 2024 in Bundelkhand agro climatic zone especially for Tikamgarh, Datia and Niwari district may be received normal to below normal rainfall. The break in monsoon during July is be more than 10 days, which may be negatively affects  the crop establishment, therefore farmers must fallow the biweekly agro advisory and weather forecasting information and try to adjust their crop management accordingly.