Overview of the breaks and progress in the 2025 Indian monsoon:

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🟢 1. Post-onset stall in early June

• The monsoon arrived early (May 24 in Kerala; reached Mumbai by May 26), but then paused around May 29 – particularly over Maharashtra and North Bengal – causing a ~25 % rainfall deficit during June 1–8.

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🔵 2. Two-week lull till mid-June

• After stalling at the Maharashtra coast, the monsoon remained stalled for nearly 13 days. According to IMD, it only resumed northward progress around June 12–15, bringing heavy rains back to Karnataka, Konkan & Goa.

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🌧️ 3. Regional variability continues

• Even after the revival, progress into Central India, Delhi, Haryana, UP, and Northeast remained uneven, with some areas still experiencing delays or patchy rains .

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    Context & Causes

• Early monsoon onset and intense Western Disturbances in May 2025 (5–7 events vs. 1–2 usual) sped up initial rains but didn’t support steady northward movement .

• Delayed progression was linked to weak Bay of Bengal branch, dominance of the Arabian Sea branch, and neutral ENSO/IOD conditions—meaning favorable for rain quantity overall, but not consistent spread.

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🗓️ Summary Table

Phase	Dates (approx.)	What happened
Early onset	May 24 – 26	Kerala → Mumbai movement faster than usual
Pause	~May 29 – June 11	Monsoon stalled in Maharashtra & North Bengal
Revival	June 12 – 15	Resumed northward spread with heavy rainfall in southwest
Ongoing uneven spread	Mid-June onward	Patchy or delayed in Delhi, central India, Northeast

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 In Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone after the onset of monsoon 18th June to 30th June,2025, a total of around 400mm rainfall was received. Three days are without rainfall during 13days period with 8 rainy days. The continuity in rainfall spell put the sowing operation of kharif crops on hold. It is expected that after 10th  July , there will be possibility of a pause in monsoon rainfall for a few days. 

 

Early arrival of Monsoon and its progress towards Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh

This year the onset of monsoon in India is 15days before and many thunderstorm activities have occurred across the Indian states. It is expected as usual, that progress of monsoon is normal and reached in Bundelkhand agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh as early as 10-15^th June, but it may be arrived here after 17^th June. However the light to moderate rain is expected to receive as pre-monsoon showers in this region, which may be beneficial for farmers who are eager to cultivate the early kharif crops like soybean, vegetables etc. It is advised to the farmers that looking the above normal rainfall forecast during monsoon season to cultivate soybean and other important vegetable crops during the

monsoon season

n.

 

Possibility of scattered rain during 11-13 January in eastern- North parts of Bundelkhand region of MP

 

There is possibility of isolated rain accomplish with thunder during 11-13 January 2025 in Bundelkhand region of MP. The possibility of hailstorm is also not ruled out. Therefore farmers are advised to delay the irrigation and insecticide /pesticide application in crops. The light to moderate fog will continue for next 7-10 days. The cloudy sky may enhanced the minimum temperature after 3-4 days, hence borer activity may be increased in pulses and oilseed crops. Farmers are advised to keep watch and do frequent surveillance of their crop.

Night will be cooler than normal during October 2024

 

Today night temperature recorded 20.5, which is 2.3°C below normal (normal night temperature is 22.8°C) at Tikamgarh, M.P.. Thus the mean daily temperature is also expected to below normal during October 2024, which is beneficial for rabi sowing.  After retreat of monsoon, farmers are advised to start sowing of early peas, Toria, Mustard for vegetable purpose for utilization of stored soil moisture. Early sowing of Chickpea after 15^th October is also advisable. The mean daily temperature for sowing of barley and rainfed wheat may be started around 20^th October. It is advised the farmers to keep watch on biweekly weather forecast and soil moisture conditions for rabi sowing in Bundelkhand of Madhya Pradesh.  

Hottest days during last week of May in Bundelkhand and Rainfall during June 2024

 

The day maximum temperature is recorded very high during 24- 31^st May 2024 in many places in Bundelkhand agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh. The Niwari district of Madhya Pradesh recorded 48.7°C on 27^th May 2024and reported to the hottest places in Madhya Pradesh. The high temperature during last week of May or Navtapa is believed to be beneficial for agriculture as well as rainfall during kharif season. The rainfall during the monsoon season in central India is predicted above normal by India Meteorological Department.

It is expected that rainfall during June 2024 in Bundelkhand agro climatic zone especially for Tikamgarh, Datia and Niwari district may be received normal to below normal rainfall. The break in monsoon during July is be more than 10 days, which may be negatively affects  the crop establishment, therefore farmers must fallow the biweekly agro advisory and weather forecasting information and try to adjust their crop management accordingly. 

Weather forecast and El Nino

 

New forecasts are being done every day, month and society as whole be benefited by these forecast results. But sometime over estimated forecasting are also been reported and later it is found out that it is not true/ happened. For example, the forecasting of February 2024 warming was done with El Nino effect. Therefore, it would probably be better to some extent if we do not jump to conclusions.

The cold conditions are prevailing during the second week of March 2024 in central India; especially in eastern Madhya Pradesh is not normal. Today a new has been published that the coming Monsoon will be normal due to ENSO neutral conditions towards the end of the summer season.

Hope for the best.

Possibility of drop in temperature in Bundelkhand Agro climatic zone of Madhya Pradesh

 

Today maximum and minimum temperature are recorded 36.5 and 20.5°C respectively at Tikamgarh. These temperature records are above daily normal, hence creating soil moisture loss at faster rate. There is possibility of cloudy weather after 16^th October, 2023, due to which the maxim day temperature will be reduced as well after clear sky drop in minimum may also possible.      

Farmers are advised to do early sowing of Pea, vegetables, Mustard for Sag, Toria and Barley to take the advantage of soil moisture. Farmers’ are advised to start sowing of rainfed wheat, Gram, Mustard after 20^th October farmers. To take advantage of dry weather conditions, farmers’ are advised to complete the harvesting of mature kharif crops. Prepare the field and do arrangements of seed, fertilizer etc. for Rabi sowing.