To estimated the possibility of rainfall in July by IMD is given more than 106 percent means , July rainfall will be also nearly 400-500mm in central India. The Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh has received from 18 June to 01 July from 300 to400mm rainfall. The rainfall spells prevented the farmers from kharif sowing and again there may be possibility of the  widespread rainfall up to 5th July 2025. If the future rainfall spells may continue up to 12-15 July , farmers are not able to do sowing in the field. After 15th July sowing will reduce the yield return, this is a peculiar situation  in kharif season, when the onset of monsoon is in time rainfall received widespread and above normal but not beneficial for farmers of the zone. 

But I have some different view that there may be a break in widespread rainfall during July after 10-12 July, but this may put some stress on the framers towards sowing the crops. Delayed sowing of crops like soybean, Groundnut, Urd, etc may reduced the return of farmers. The other view are given below:

Rainfall Pattern in Bundelkhand

Bundelkhand, covering parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, is a semi-arid to sub-humid zone, mainly dependent on the southwest monsoon (June–September) for rainfall. The monsoon contributes over 85–90% of the annual rainfall.

Here’s the general distribution of monsoon rainfall in Bundelkhand:

• June: 15–20% (normally)

• July: 35–40%

• August: 25–30%

• September: 10–15%

If June Receives 40% of Annual Rainfall...

This is much higher than average. If 40% falls in June alone, that leaves only 60% of the total annual rainfall for the remaining months (July–September).

Possible Scenarios:

• This may indicate an early and heavy onset of monsoon.

• There is a chance of reduced rainfall in July and August due to:

  • Shift in monsoon dynamics.

  • Dry spells following early heavy rains (common in monsoon breaks).

  • Localized variations.

3. Estimated Possibility (in % of Annual Rainfall):

Assuming June got 40%:

• July: ~25–30%

• August: ~20–25%

• September: ~5–10%

So, July + August rainfall could be 45–55% of the total annual rainfall.

4. Risk Assessment for Agriculture

• The early heavy rains in June could lead to early sowing, but if July/August rains are lower than normal, crop stress (especially in rainfed areas) is a risk.

• Water conservation and soil moisture retention strategies become crucial.

Summary

If June receives 40% of total annual rainfall, it's likely that July and August will jointly contribute about 45–55%, but there's a possibility of below-normal rainfall in these months. Monitoring IMD forecasts and preparing for dry spells is essential.

 Overview of the breaks and progress in the 2025 Indian monsoon:

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🟢 1. Post-onset stall in early June

• The monsoon arrived early (May 24 in Kerala; reached Mumbai by May 26), but then paused around May 29 – particularly over Maharashtra and North Bengal – causing a ~25 % rainfall deficit during June 1–8.

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🔵 2. Two-week lull till mid-June

• After stalling at the Maharashtra coast, the monsoon remained stalled for nearly 13 days. According to IMD, it only resumed northward progress around June 12–15, bringing heavy rains back to Karnataka, Konkan & Goa.

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🌧️ 3. Regional variability continues

• Even after the revival, progress into Central India, Delhi, Haryana, UP, and Northeast remained uneven, with some areas still experiencing delays or patchy rains .

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    Context & Causes

• Early monsoon onset and intense Western Disturbances in May 2025 (5–7 events vs. 1–2 usual) sped up initial rains but didn’t support steady northward movement .

• Delayed progression was linked to weak Bay of Bengal branch, dominance of the Arabian Sea branch, and neutral ENSO/IOD conditions—meaning favorable for rain quantity overall, but not consistent spread.

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🗓️ Summary Table

Phase	Dates (approx.)	What happened
Early onset	May 24 – 26	Kerala → Mumbai movement faster than usual
Pause	~May 29 – June 11	Monsoon stalled in Maharashtra & North Bengal
Revival	June 12 – 15	Resumed northward spread with heavy rainfall in southwest
Ongoing uneven spread	Mid-June onward	Patchy or delayed in Delhi, central India, Northeast

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 In Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone after the onset of monsoon 18th June to 30th June,2025, a total of around 400mm rainfall was received. Three days are without rainfall during 13days period with 8 rainy days. The continuity in rainfall spell put the sowing operation of kharif crops on hold. It is expected that after 10th  July , there will be possibility of a pause in monsoon rainfall for a few days. 

 

Early arrival of Monsoon and its progress towards Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh

This year the onset of monsoon in India is 15days before and many thunderstorm activities have occurred across the Indian states. It is expected as usual, that progress of monsoon is normal and reached in Bundelkhand agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh as early as 10-15^th June, but it may be arrived here after 17^th June. However the light to moderate rain is expected to receive as pre-monsoon showers in this region, which may be beneficial for farmers who are eager to cultivate the early kharif crops like soybean, vegetables etc. It is advised to the farmers that looking the above normal rainfall forecast during monsoon season to cultivate soybean and other important vegetable crops during the

monsoon season

n.

 

Possibility of scattered rain during 11-13 January in eastern- North parts of Bundelkhand region of MP

 

There is possibility of isolated rain accomplish with thunder during 11-13 January 2025 in Bundelkhand region of MP. The possibility of hailstorm is also not ruled out. Therefore farmers are advised to delay the irrigation and insecticide /pesticide application in crops. The light to moderate fog will continue for next 7-10 days. The cloudy sky may enhanced the minimum temperature after 3-4 days, hence borer activity may be increased in pulses and oilseed crops. Farmers are advised to keep watch and do frequent surveillance of their crop.