The
state Madhya Pradesh has received above average rainfall in monsoon season. The 1-1.5°C below normal high temperature and 1.5-2°C
above normal minimum temperatures have been recorded over the most part of
Madhya Pradesh during second fortnight of September 2025. India Meteorological
Department predicted a colder winter 2025-26 and hence the crops like, wheat,
mustard, chickpea and pea as well as many vegetables crop could have better
growth and yield. Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are
planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during
their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.
La Niña and prediction of winters cooler in parts of
India
La
Niña is the cold phase of ENSO
(cooler-than-normal equatorial Pacific SSTs). It shifts large-scale circulation
patterns (jet streams and storm tracks) that influence the subcontinent.
For
northern & central India, several studies and operational forecasts show La
Niña can increase the frequency/intensity of western disturbances and
promote anomalous cooling in winter, producing colder spells and sometimes
increased winter precipitation in some years (though details vary by event and
region).
Operational agencies (IMD/CPC/WMO discussions in 2024–25)
flagged a rising chance of La Niña for late 2025 and warned that a La
Niña winter often correlates with colder-than-usual winter conditions across
northern India.
East Madhya Pradesh
Minimum (night) temperatures: more likely to be below climatological normal on
average during the core winter months (Dec–Jan), with an increased chance of
cold nights and intermittent cold-wave events.
Expect a higher frequency of nights near the
climatological cold extremes rather than a uniform shift everywhere. Maximum
(day) temperatures: daytime values may be only modestly affected (cloud
cover and WDs modulate daytime heating), but prolonged cloudy/wet spells from
WDs would reduce daytime maxima during those spells.
Rainfall / fog:
Some La Niña-linked circulation changes can alter western disturbance tracks —
parts of north/central India sometimes see increased winter cloud/precipitation
in certain La Niña events. Increased cloud/fog will raise night minima (reduce
radiative cooling) locally, so impacts are spatially variable.
Role of GKMS
Alert
for cold-sensitive crops (early stages
of rabi crops, vegetables): prepare advisories for frost protection, delayed
irrigation timings to reduce cold stress where needed.
Livestock: advise shelters, bedding, and feed buffering for expected
cold spells.
Forecast-ready
advisories: emphasize close monitoring of
IMD/GKMS bulletins and local synoptic updates; issue short-term advisories when
a strong western disturbance / cold-wave is imminent.
Post-event
assessment: if La Niña brings more winter
precipitation, prepare for waterlogging or delayed field operations in
low-lying areas.
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