Wheat sowing may be one week earlier to the recommended sowing window in the Bundelkhand region of Central India

 

Wheat sowing may be one week earlier to the recommended sowing window in the Bundelkhand region of Central India

The optimum temperature range for sowing wheat in the Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh is between 20°C and 25°C. However, the ideal mean daily temperature for sowing is slightly lower, around 20°C to 23°C. In Central India, the recommended sowing window (timely sowing) is mainly early–mid November so that mean daily temperatures at sowing and early growth are in the desirable range.

Temperature requirements for wheat sowing and germination

Sowing/Germination: Wheat seeds germinate best in a temperature range of 20°C to 25°C. A warm and damp climate is not suitable for early growth. For wheat in the Bundelkhand region of Central India, the optimum daily mean temperature for sowing is around 22–23°C. Sowing should ideally begin when average daily temperatures fall to this range, which promotes healthy seed germination and good crop establishment. This recommendation is widely cited for wheat cultivation in Central Indian agro-climatic zones, including Bundelkhand.

Best sowing time

Bundelkhand falls under the Central Zone for wheat production, which includes Madhya Pradesh. For this region, the optimal time for sowing is generally the first fortnight of November under irrigated conditions ( Figure 1). Timely sowing is crucial, as delaying it can reduce crop duration and expose the plant to heat stress during the grain-filling stage, which drastically lowers yields. 

Rabi 2025

The maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded on 9th October 2025, at 31.5 °C and 19.0°C, and on 10th October 2025, at 29.8 °C and 17.5°C. It was observed that after October 7, 2025, there has been a continuous decrease in both maximum and minimum temperatures. It is expected that after two weeks (the last week of October 2025), the mean temperature will be in the range of 22-23°C. Thus, this year, the sowing of irrigated wheat will start one week before the recommended sowing window. The sowing of rainfed wheat is also started one week in advance, i.e, during the current week (second week of October 2025). Sowing moisture is also adequate for the sowing of all rabi crops.

Practical rule-of-thumb for Bundelkhand

For Bundelkhand (central India) aim for a mean daily air temperature ~20–24°Cat sowing (commonly reported as 23±3 °C). Germination is best when mean daily temperature is ~20–25 °C.

Prefer sowing when the 5–7 day running mean of daily temperature is close to 20–24 °C.

Ensure adequate soil moisture at sowing (germination depends on moisture as much as temperature).

Colder winter 2025-26 (Rabi season) and general outlook

 

The state Madhya Pradesh has received above average rainfall in monsoon season.  The 1-1.5°C below normal high temperature and 1.5-2°C above normal minimum temperatures have been recorded over the most part of Madhya Pradesh during second fortnight of September 2025. India Meteorological Department predicted a colder winter 2025-26 and hence the crops like, wheat, mustard, chickpea and pea as well as many vegetables crop could have better growth and yield. Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

La Niña and prediction of winters cooler in parts of India

La Niña is the cold phase of ENSO (cooler-than-normal equatorial Pacific SSTs). It shifts large-scale circulation patterns (jet streams and storm tracks) that influence the subcontinent.

For northern & central India, several studies and operational forecasts show La Niña can increase the frequency/intensity of western disturbances and promote anomalous cooling in winter, producing colder spells and sometimes increased winter precipitation in some years (though details vary by event and region).

Operational agencies (IMD/CPC/WMO discussions in 2024–25) flagged a rising chance of La Niña for late 2025 and warned that a La Niña winter often correlates with colder-than-usual winter conditions across northern India.

East Madhya Pradesh

Minimum (night) temperatures: more likely to be below climatological normal on average during the core winter months (Dec–Jan), with an increased chance of cold nights and intermittent cold-wave events.

Expect a higher frequency of nights near the climatological cold extremes rather than a uniform shift everywhere. Maximum (day) temperatures: daytime values may be only modestly affected (cloud cover and WDs modulate daytime heating), but prolonged cloudy/wet spells from WDs would reduce daytime maxima during those spells.

Rainfall / fog: Some La Niña-linked circulation changes can alter western disturbance tracks — parts of north/central India sometimes see increased winter cloud/precipitation in certain La Niña events. Increased cloud/fog will raise night minima (reduce radiative cooling) locally, so impacts are spatially variable.

Role of GKMS

Alert for cold-sensitive crops (early stages of rabi crops, vegetables): prepare advisories for frost protection, delayed irrigation timings to reduce cold stress where needed.

Livestock: advise shelters, bedding, and feed buffering for expected cold spells.

Forecast-ready advisories: emphasize close monitoring of IMD/GKMS bulletins and local synoptic updates; issue short-term advisories when a strong western disturbance / cold-wave is imminent.

Post-event assessment: if La Niña brings more winter precipitation, prepare for waterlogging or delayed field operations in low-lying areas.

Automation of Agromet Advisory by IMD and ICRISAT vs Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) : Efforts to join the missing dots

 

Automation of Agromet Advisory by IMD and ICRISAT vs Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) : Efforts to join the missing dots

The ICRISAT has launched artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to deliver personalized, real-time climate advisory services to farmers. Earlier, IMD, MoES had tried to developed e-advisory for farmers and its automated generation utilizing weather forecast and remote sensing inputs. But still are not in an operation mode at district level advisories formulation. The two things one has to consider that observed verses forecast pattern either it lies in weather or the agromet advisory. Are observed weather has shown any pattern or in the agromet advisories, if yes automation works precisely, if yes automation works precisely, if not replication by automation is only refinement. If you have some patten than AI will work better than any model.

Weather pattern could have forecast probabilities, which are based on the number of ensemble members assigned to each weather pattern. Robert et al. (2022) have reported that the winter dry period weather patterns have the highest forecast skill, closely followed by retreating monsoon weather patterns. In contrast, monsoon onset and break monsoon weather patterns have the lowest forecast skill.

Though the bi-weekly agromet advisory provides farmers with localized agricultural advice based on weather forecasts, crop stage, soil conditions, pest/disease risks, and agricultural best practices, typically issued every 4-5 days.

To have more precise weather forecast the GoI had launched the BFS which may provide highly accurate, real-time weather predictions at an unprecedented 6-kilometer resolution, a significant improvement over the previous 12-kilometer system. This allows for village-level forecasts up to 10 days in advance.

Comments are given by many scholars that one has to consider weather parameters rather than rather variables, use of AI in weather forecasting and agromet advisory. To define a model or define the state parameters are more suitable than variables. The other know dots or difficulties involves in weather forecasting are tropical weather is inherently more chaotic, complex interactions with weather systems, data gaps and randomness. Hence, we need to connect all these dots.

AI and forecasting have limitations

AI cannot reliably predict the toss of a One Day International (ODI) cricket match or any coin toss because the outcome is random by nature. Although the probability is 50 50 just like rain or no rain.

Where chaos and complex interaction exits, precise quantitative forecasting may be not has 95-100 probability. Randomness in output restrict the use of AI, Hopeful for e-advisory and AI forecast would be made automation more precise in this decade.

 

Late sowing

 

CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR CONTINUOUS RAINFALL AFTER MONSOON ONSET

Contingency planning during continuous rainfall after the onset of monsoon—especially in vulnerable regions like the Bundelkhand agro-climatic zone of Madhya Pradesh—is crucial to prevent waterlogging, crop damage, seedling mortality, and nutrient loss.

Contingency plans for up to ~30 July

Sowing of even earlier maturing varieties becomes critical; emphasis shifts toward very short-duration jowar hybrids, and pulses suitable under late rainfall scenarios.

Very short-duration, fast-maturing jowar hybrids, pulses..Heavy soils still allow paddy.

 

CONTINGENCY MEASURES

 

Land Preparation & Field Management

• Ensure proper drainage before sowing:
• Use broad-bed and furrow (BBF) system in black soils.
• Create furrows between crop rows to drain excess water.
• Open field bunds at intervals to let excess rainwater out.
• Avoid deep ploughing during saturated conditions—wait for soil to settle.

Crop Planning & Sowing Adjustments

If sowing was not done before heavy rain:

Situation	Recommendation
Field saturated, sowing pending	Wait till surface dries enough for seed to not rot
Sown crop lost to waterlogging	Re-sow with short-duration pulses or oilseeds (e.g. urad, moong, sesame)
Standing crop waterlogged	Open drainage furrows; consider planting on ridges in future

 

Crop Selection

Choose:

• Short-duration, waterlogging-tolerant varieties of:
• Urad (T-9, IPU 94-1)
• Sesame (JT 21, TKG 22)
• Jowar/Bajra hybrids
• Consider intercropping (e.g. maize + cowpea or  pigeon pea) to reduce total risk.

Nutrient Management

• Continuous rain leaches nitrogen (N); apply split N doses.
• Foliar spray of urea (2%) or DAP (2%) can help weak crops recover.
• Avoid heavy basal application when heavy rain is forecast.

Pest and Disease Monitoring

• Watch for:
• Damping-off in seedlings
• Root rot, collar rot, leaf blight
• Use preventive fungicides (e.g., Trichoderma, Carbendazim for seed treatment)
• Improve aeration by inter-row hoeing once rain stops

Livelihood & Fodder Planning

• Ensure fodder availability if crop loss is expected:
• Plant fast-growing fodder: sorghum (MP Chari), maize, cowpea
• Use bunds and fallow areas for fodder crops
•  

Case-Specific Advice

• Use intercropping systems like:
• Pigeon pea + urad/moong
• Pigeon pea + Jowar
• Maize
• In extremely wet fields, delay sowing and focus on nursery raising (for vegetables or rice) in raised beds.

 

 

Contingency planning for crop sowing

 This year a special weather conditions has prevailed in Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone specially in the districts Tikamgarh and Chhatarpur. Though the onset of monsoon was in time(17-18 June) in this agroclimatic zone. The rainfall distribution is good and above normal rainfall was received from 18th June to 10th July 2025. Tikamgarh, and Chhatarpur districts of  Madhya Pradesh, have experienced above‑normal rainfall since onset of monsoon 18th  June to 10th  July 2025. The monsoon entered around June 17—close to normal—but quickly became vigorous. The rainfall received during June  was about 40 -50% above normal. July is also seeing above‑normal monsoon rains, There is a possibility of scattered rainfall in these districts after 13th July, and will be continue up to 21st July ,2025. 

It is expecting a short duration  sowing window (16-21st July) may be available for sowing of crops.

 Implications for cropping and sowing

Framers of this zone have not able to do sowing of kharif crops in major area of these districts. However ,under above normal rainfall, contingency measures and best cropping choices are given below:

1. Sowing window adjustments

According to district contingency guidelines for Tikamgarh:

• Rainfed Kharif crops (sorghum, blackgram, soybean, sesame, groundnut) have a typical sowing window from third week of June up to 10 July.
• With monsoon already intense, sowing should preferably be done within this window, especially before mid-July, to avoid waterlogging risks.

2. If rainfall continues heavy past mid-July

Contingency plan for “heavy or continuous rains” on heavy soils includes:

• Ensure proper drainage in fields.
• Use ridge‑and‑furrow planting to improve water runoff.
• For paddy, sow only after draining excess water from fields .

3. Suitable crops & varieties under wet conditions

• On medium soils: soybean, arhar (pigeon pea), moong, urd, jowar, maize—prefer early sowing.
• On heavy soils: paddy (if drainage is effective), Sowing of black gram, moong and Til
• , vegetables.
• Ridge‑row patterns are recommended.

4. Agronomic practices

• Maintain drainage channels and field bunds to avoid water stagnation.
• Use organic matter or green manures to improve soil structure.
• Monitor for diseases common in saturated soils.
• Use climate-resilient and flood-tolerant seed varieties.
• Maintain crop insurance and timely access to seeds and agri-inputs.

Action Plan for Tikamgarh

Crop Type	Soil Type	Strategy
Paddy	Heavy	Drain before sowing; use ridge‑and‑furrow; opt for flood‑tolerant seed
Moong/Urd/Til	Medium/Shallow	Finish sowing by mid‑July; ridge planting; add green manure
Sesame	Medium/Shallow	Sowing completed upto 20th July; ensure drainage

 

Rain forecast and kharif sowing in Tikamgarh

 

                                                          Rainfall forecast 

                                                   Wind flow pattern and low pressure 

The above two figures are the projection of rainfall and wind flow pattern over India, by IMD on 13^th July 2025. The heavy rainfall forecast during 11-13 July, 2025 delayed the kharif crop sowing in Tikamgarh of The Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh. One a few farmers have sown their kharif crops during 19-20^th  June,2025. However, these crop are healthy but the major risk is grazing of crops by free wandering cattle’s in this area.

The possibility of scattered rain with a little bit of sunny weather will provide a change of sowing of short duration pulse and oilseed crops in this zone after 13^th July.

 

Weather forecast for Tikamgarh, Madhya Pradesh, India:

There is possibility of overcast sky with moderate to heavy rainfall at most of the places during 9-12-13^th July, 2025.

Weather Outlook (July 10–15, 2025, Tikamgarh, MP)

• Frequent clouds and showers each day; rainfall intensity will vary from light to moderate, with occasional heavy spells.
• Temperatures will stay moderate — highs around 29–32 °C, lows between 24–26 °C.

Weather alerts indicate heavy to very heavy rainfall for parts of MP around July 10–12,

Crop Advisories for Kharif

Based on local and statewide agromet guidance:

1. Rice (Paddy)

• Transplant 20–25 day-old seedlings at 20 × 10 cm spacing.
• Before planting, apply: N:100 kg/ha, P₂O₅:60 kg/ha, K₂O:40 kg/ha, Zinc sulfate:25 kg/ha.
• Add Blue Green Algae (BGA) in standing-water fields for natural nitrogen enrichment.
• Maintain strong bunds to conserve rainwater.

2. Fodder Sorghum & Lobia (Cowpea)

• Now is ideal time to sow fodder sorghum (e.g., Pusa chari‑9 or Pusa chari‑6) at ~40 kg/ha.
• Cowpea sowing is recommended after 2^nd  week of July.

3. Rainy‑Season Vegetables (Chilli, Brinjal, Cauliflower, Cucurbits)

• Remove excess water by making ridge and furrow method.
• Transplant brinjal, chilli, early cauliflower if seedlings are ready.
• Direct-sow cucurbits—bottle gourd, bitter gourd, pumpkin, cucumber—while soil is dry .

4. Orchards (Newly Planted)

• Dig 1 m³ pits, fill with decomposed FYM.
• Treat with Chlorpyrifos 20 EC at 5 mL/L to prevent soil pests.
• Translating of fruits plant is recommended.

5. Soil & Water Management

• Apply decomposed FYM/compost before sowing.
• Stop foliar sprays during heavy rains.
• Build on-field water storage (e.g., farm bunds) to capture rainwater for later irrigation.
• Manage drainage efficiently to avoid waterlogging during forecast heavy rains.

Flash Flood & Excess Rain Risks

• With potential heavy downpours, monitor for:
• Waterlogging in low-lying crops (rice, Oil seeds, pulses).
• Soil erosion; protect with bunds and mulches.
• Increased disease risk in pulses use timely drainage and fungicide sprays if needed.
• Seasonal flooding: fields near streams may require temporary diversion channels.

Farmers’ Quick Checklist:

Task	Action
Nursery Fields	Ensure good drainage, shade nets for seedlings
Transplanting	Paddy: transplant now; vegetables: transplant/sow timely
Soil Fertility	Apply FYM/compost and soil-specific fertilisers
Drainage Setup	Create channels to avoid waterlogging during heavy rains
Post-Rain Check	Watch for fungal infections; apply fungicides if signs appear
Water Harvesting	Strengthen bunds, construct shallow ponds/drops for irrigation

 

Weather forecast and farmers

 

The estimated the possibility of rainfall in July by IMD is given more than 106 percent means , July rainfall will be also nearly 400-500mm in central India. The Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh has received from 18 June to 01 July from 300 to400mm rainfall. The rainfall spells prevented the farmers from kharif sowing and again there may be possibility of the  widespread rainfall up to 5th July 2025. If the future rainfall spells may continue up to 12-15 July , farmers are not able to do sowing in the field. After 15th July sowing will reduce the yield return, this is a peculiar situation  in kharif season, when the onset of monsoon is in time rainfall received widespread and above normal but not beneficial for farmers of the zone. 

But I have some different view that there may be a break in widespread rainfall during July after 10-12 July, but this may put some stress on the framers towards sowing the crops. Delayed sowing of crops like soybean, Groundnut, Urd, etc may reduced the return of farmers. The other view are given below:

Rainfall Pattern in Bundelkhand

Bundelkhand, covering parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, is a semi-arid to sub-humid zone, mainly dependent on the southwest monsoon (June–September) for rainfall. The monsoon contributes over 85–90% of the annual rainfall.

Here’s the general distribution of monsoon rainfall in Bundelkhand:

• June: 15–20% (normally)

• July: 35–40%

• August: 25–30%

• September: 10–15%

If June Receives 40% of Annual Rainfall...

This is much higher than average. If 40% falls in June alone, that leaves only 60% of the total annual rainfall for the remaining months (July–September).

Possible Scenarios:

• This may indicate an early and heavy onset of monsoon.

• There is a chance of reduced rainfall in July and August due to:

  • Shift in monsoon dynamics.

  • Dry spells following early heavy rains (common in monsoon breaks).

  • Localized variations.

3. Estimated Possibility (in % of Annual Rainfall):

Assuming June got 40%:

• July: ~25–30%

• August: ~20–25%

• September: ~5–10%

So, July + August rainfall could be 45–55% of the total annual rainfall.

4. Risk Assessment for Agriculture

• The early heavy rains in June could lead to early sowing, but if July/August rains are lower than normal, crop stress (especially in rainfed areas) is a risk.

• Water conservation and soil moisture retention strategies become crucial.

Summary

If June receives 40% of total annual rainfall, it's likely that July and August will jointly contribute about 45–55%, but there's a possibility of below-normal rainfall in these months. Monitoring IMD forecasts and preparing for dry spells is essential.