Late sowing

 

CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR CONTINUOUS RAINFALL AFTER MONSOON ONSET

Contingency planning during continuous rainfall after the onset of monsoon—especially in vulnerable regions like the Bundelkhand agro-climatic zone of Madhya Pradesh—is crucial to prevent waterlogging, crop damage, seedling mortality, and nutrient loss.

Contingency plans for up to ~30 July

Sowing of even earlier maturing varieties becomes critical; emphasis shifts toward very short-duration jowar hybrids, and pulses suitable under late rainfall scenarios.

Very short-duration, fast-maturing jowar hybrids, pulses..Heavy soils still allow paddy.

 

CONTINGENCY MEASURES

 

Land Preparation & Field Management

• Ensure proper drainage before sowing:
• Use broad-bed and furrow (BBF) system in black soils.
• Create furrows between crop rows to drain excess water.
• Open field bunds at intervals to let excess rainwater out.
• Avoid deep ploughing during saturated conditions—wait for soil to settle.

Crop Planning & Sowing Adjustments

If sowing was not done before heavy rain:

Situation	Recommendation
Field saturated, sowing pending	Wait till surface dries enough for seed to not rot
Sown crop lost to waterlogging	Re-sow with short-duration pulses or oilseeds (e.g. urad, moong, sesame)
Standing crop waterlogged	Open drainage furrows; consider planting on ridges in future

 

Crop Selection

Choose:

• Short-duration, waterlogging-tolerant varieties of:
• Urad (T-9, IPU 94-1)
• Sesame (JT 21, TKG 22)
• Jowar/Bajra hybrids
• Consider intercropping (e.g. maize + cowpea or  pigeon pea) to reduce total risk.

Nutrient Management

• Continuous rain leaches nitrogen (N); apply split N doses.
• Foliar spray of urea (2%) or DAP (2%) can help weak crops recover.
• Avoid heavy basal application when heavy rain is forecast.

Pest and Disease Monitoring

• Watch for:
• Damping-off in seedlings
• Root rot, collar rot, leaf blight
• Use preventive fungicides (e.g., Trichoderma, Carbendazim for seed treatment)
• Improve aeration by inter-row hoeing once rain stops

Livelihood & Fodder Planning

• Ensure fodder availability if crop loss is expected:
• Plant fast-growing fodder: sorghum (MP Chari), maize, cowpea
• Use bunds and fallow areas for fodder crops
•  

Case-Specific Advice

• Use intercropping systems like:
• Pigeon pea + urad/moong
• Pigeon pea + Jowar
• Maize
• In extremely wet fields, delay sowing and focus on nursery raising (for vegetables or rice) in raised beds.

 

 

Contingency planning for crop sowing

 This year a special weather conditions has prevailed in Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone specially in the districts Tikamgarh and Chhatarpur. Though the onset of monsoon was in time(17-18 June) in this agroclimatic zone. The rainfall distribution is good and above normal rainfall was received from 18th June to 10th July 2025. Tikamgarh, and Chhatarpur districts of  Madhya Pradesh, have experienced above‑normal rainfall since onset of monsoon 18th  June to 10th  July 2025. The monsoon entered around June 17—close to normal—but quickly became vigorous. The rainfall received during June  was about 40 -50% above normal. July is also seeing above‑normal monsoon rains, There is a possibility of scattered rainfall in these districts after 13th July, and will be continue up to 21st July ,2025. 

It is expecting a short duration  sowing window (16-21st July) may be available for sowing of crops.

 Implications for cropping and sowing

Framers of this zone have not able to do sowing of kharif crops in major area of these districts. However ,under above normal rainfall, contingency measures and best cropping choices are given below:

1. Sowing window adjustments

According to district contingency guidelines for Tikamgarh:

• Rainfed Kharif crops (sorghum, blackgram, soybean, sesame, groundnut) have a typical sowing window from third week of June up to 10 July.
• With monsoon already intense, sowing should preferably be done within this window, especially before mid-July, to avoid waterlogging risks.

2. If rainfall continues heavy past mid-July

Contingency plan for “heavy or continuous rains” on heavy soils includes:

• Ensure proper drainage in fields.
• Use ridge‑and‑furrow planting to improve water runoff.
• For paddy, sow only after draining excess water from fields .

3. Suitable crops & varieties under wet conditions

• On medium soils: soybean, arhar (pigeon pea), moong, urd, jowar, maize—prefer early sowing.
• On heavy soils: paddy (if drainage is effective), Sowing of black gram, moong and Til
• , vegetables.
• Ridge‑row patterns are recommended.

4. Agronomic practices

• Maintain drainage channels and field bunds to avoid water stagnation.
• Use organic matter or green manures to improve soil structure.
• Monitor for diseases common in saturated soils.
• Use climate-resilient and flood-tolerant seed varieties.
• Maintain crop insurance and timely access to seeds and agri-inputs.

Action Plan for Tikamgarh

Crop Type	Soil Type	Strategy
Paddy	Heavy	Drain before sowing; use ridge‑and‑furrow; opt for flood‑tolerant seed
Moong/Urd/Til	Medium/Shallow	Finish sowing by mid‑July; ridge planting; add green manure
Sesame	Medium/Shallow	Sowing completed upto 20th July; ensure drainage

 

Rain forecast and kharif sowing in Tikamgarh

 

                                                          Rainfall forecast 

                                                   Wind flow pattern and low pressure 

The above two figures are the projection of rainfall and wind flow pattern over India, by IMD on 13^th July 2025. The heavy rainfall forecast during 11-13 July, 2025 delayed the kharif crop sowing in Tikamgarh of The Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh. One a few farmers have sown their kharif crops during 19-20^th  June,2025. However, these crop are healthy but the major risk is grazing of crops by free wandering cattle’s in this area.

The possibility of scattered rain with a little bit of sunny weather will provide a change of sowing of short duration pulse and oilseed crops in this zone after 13^th July.

 

Weather forecast for Tikamgarh, Madhya Pradesh, India:

There is possibility of overcast sky with moderate to heavy rainfall at most of the places during 9-12-13^th July, 2025.

Weather Outlook (July 10–15, 2025, Tikamgarh, MP)

• Frequent clouds and showers each day; rainfall intensity will vary from light to moderate, with occasional heavy spells.
• Temperatures will stay moderate — highs around 29–32 °C, lows between 24–26 °C.

Weather alerts indicate heavy to very heavy rainfall for parts of MP around July 10–12,

Crop Advisories for Kharif

Based on local and statewide agromet guidance:

1. Rice (Paddy)

• Transplant 20–25 day-old seedlings at 20 × 10 cm spacing.
• Before planting, apply: N:100 kg/ha, P₂O₅:60 kg/ha, K₂O:40 kg/ha, Zinc sulfate:25 kg/ha.
• Add Blue Green Algae (BGA) in standing-water fields for natural nitrogen enrichment.
• Maintain strong bunds to conserve rainwater.

2. Fodder Sorghum & Lobia (Cowpea)

• Now is ideal time to sow fodder sorghum (e.g., Pusa chari‑9 or Pusa chari‑6) at ~40 kg/ha.
• Cowpea sowing is recommended after 2^nd  week of July.

3. Rainy‑Season Vegetables (Chilli, Brinjal, Cauliflower, Cucurbits)

• Remove excess water by making ridge and furrow method.
• Transplant brinjal, chilli, early cauliflower if seedlings are ready.
• Direct-sow cucurbits—bottle gourd, bitter gourd, pumpkin, cucumber—while soil is dry .

4. Orchards (Newly Planted)

• Dig 1 m³ pits, fill with decomposed FYM.
• Treat with Chlorpyrifos 20 EC at 5 mL/L to prevent soil pests.
• Translating of fruits plant is recommended.

5. Soil & Water Management

• Apply decomposed FYM/compost before sowing.
• Stop foliar sprays during heavy rains.
• Build on-field water storage (e.g., farm bunds) to capture rainwater for later irrigation.
• Manage drainage efficiently to avoid waterlogging during forecast heavy rains.

Flash Flood & Excess Rain Risks

• With potential heavy downpours, monitor for:
• Waterlogging in low-lying crops (rice, Oil seeds, pulses).
• Soil erosion; protect with bunds and mulches.
• Increased disease risk in pulses use timely drainage and fungicide sprays if needed.
• Seasonal flooding: fields near streams may require temporary diversion channels.

Farmers’ Quick Checklist:

Task	Action
Nursery Fields	Ensure good drainage, shade nets for seedlings
Transplanting	Paddy: transplant now; vegetables: transplant/sow timely
Soil Fertility	Apply FYM/compost and soil-specific fertilisers
Drainage Setup	Create channels to avoid waterlogging during heavy rains
Post-Rain Check	Watch for fungal infections; apply fungicides if signs appear
Water Harvesting	Strengthen bunds, construct shallow ponds/drops for irrigation

 

Weather forecast and farmers

 

The estimated the possibility of rainfall in July by IMD is given more than 106 percent means , July rainfall will be also nearly 400-500mm in central India. The Bundelkhand Agroclimatic zone of Madhya Pradesh has received from 18 June to 01 July from 300 to400mm rainfall. The rainfall spells prevented the farmers from kharif sowing and again there may be possibility of the  widespread rainfall up to 5th July 2025. If the future rainfall spells may continue up to 12-15 July , farmers are not able to do sowing in the field. After 15th July sowing will reduce the yield return, this is a peculiar situation  in kharif season, when the onset of monsoon is in time rainfall received widespread and above normal but not beneficial for farmers of the zone. 

But I have some different view that there may be a break in widespread rainfall during July after 10-12 July, but this may put some stress on the framers towards sowing the crops. Delayed sowing of crops like soybean, Groundnut, Urd, etc may reduced the return of farmers. The other view are given below:

Rainfall Pattern in Bundelkhand

Bundelkhand, covering parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, is a semi-arid to sub-humid zone, mainly dependent on the southwest monsoon (June–September) for rainfall. The monsoon contributes over 85–90% of the annual rainfall.

Here’s the general distribution of monsoon rainfall in Bundelkhand:

• June: 15–20% (normally)

• July: 35–40%

• August: 25–30%

• September: 10–15%

If June Receives 40% of Annual Rainfall...

This is much higher than average. If 40% falls in June alone, that leaves only 60% of the total annual rainfall for the remaining months (July–September).

Possible Scenarios:

• This may indicate an early and heavy onset of monsoon.

• There is a chance of reduced rainfall in July and August due to:

  • Shift in monsoon dynamics.

  • Dry spells following early heavy rains (common in monsoon breaks).

  • Localized variations.

3. Estimated Possibility (in % of Annual Rainfall):

Assuming June got 40%:

• July: ~25–30%

• August: ~20–25%

• September: ~5–10%

So, July + August rainfall could be 45–55% of the total annual rainfall.

4. Risk Assessment for Agriculture

• The early heavy rains in June could lead to early sowing, but if July/August rains are lower than normal, crop stress (especially in rainfed areas) is a risk.

• Water conservation and soil moisture retention strategies become crucial.

Summary

If June receives 40% of total annual rainfall, it's likely that July and August will jointly contribute about 45–55%, but there's a possibility of below-normal rainfall in these months. Monitoring IMD forecasts and preparing for dry spells is essential.